A USA Short Seller's Diary 2

Yippee we're out of the SEC's sin bin, no more timeouts, back in the thirties big game, shorts rule, slam dunk every Morgan Stanley put! Inflation in the nation don’t bother me, cause I’m a scholar with a dollar, as you can plain see. Guess who wrote that song? Shaft - I'm showing my age -. At Dow 14,000 I got laughed outta the dealing room for calling Dow at 9,000 (P/E's at 9) or less as a first stop, now it's below 9,000 and I'm cashing in profits the whole way down. At 5,000 (P/E's will be 5) and would be historical bottom, but now let me shout my call m- Dow 4,000 in two years or sooner in fast market time, every month only a week, week after week, every day a week, day after day, a day is an hour, hour after hour, Bloomberg and CNBC bring it on - their show me market bottom-seers! Jerk after jerk sees a bottom beginning 5,000 points ago. First problem, these fools believe their own propaganda. But, Propaganda's meant for the enemy, the retail schmucks who the market professionals are tsuccessfuly stuffing. Second problem, 99.99 % of experts in this speculate to cremate business think the world is linear. How often do I preach to the trough, pearls before swine, that the linearity coefficient is pure bs, only for future states of the world? Turn on the TV talking heads on the propaganda screens and I bet you’ll hear tomorrow: “after the market falls this far, it will most likely do this or that in so many days.” Arrgh. these idiots savants should be taken off the air because they are contributing to the economic plunder by Wall Street's downhill slalom champeens. I still think there is room in EWG puts (Germany), although who am I to suggest that? I bought Ultrashort SDS and DXW Dec.85 calls (remember to think inverse, calls because this is a short fund) at $3.14 and sold them at $6.40 and was feeling pretty smug about $32 grand smug until they closed next day at $29.50, which means for every contract I left about $2,300 on the table, and I had 100 contracts. I couldn’t help it because I had a big Lehmans party to take my girl to and go pfisching some some insider steers from guys who technically are no longer inside. She had her fourth date with me and I hope she’s gonna commit now, because this dating is costing me a fortune in bar tabs alone. Anyways, next day
I bought Potash puts today POT and they popped $10.00 per contract – that’s $1,000 per put. Not bad at all. I’ll got out because I wouldn’t be around next trading day tomorrow but hey everyone take a look at POT. I warned the guys about Met Life and it dived by ½ in value making me some weekend money. Same happened to Prudential when it dropped $10 in half a day. Take another look at Priceline – no not travel? They got into toxic mortgages and crashed by ½ in 10 trading days, but do not qualify to go to The Fed's Pre-Xmas Santa Claus window. On the positive side, I bought AXA April 35 calls because AXA is one of a few solid companies around that was wise to bail out of the US. Next stop, the Euro at 2 bucks. The only thing with AXA is that the pit trader is a crook and tries to take me by making spread way too wide. I Stayed away from gold. Chumps couldn't understand that when poverty beckons, pawnbrokers make a killing buying in gold cheap. I read this summary, which goes "If you were filled with whiskey for a few weeks and are now sober and someone tells you the current market summary, where do you think gold would be? $5,000?" Think what happened until now?
[1] Eight Fed rate cuts, the last of which was globally coordinated;
[2] creation of two alphabet soup special lending agencies (TAF, TSLF),
[3] nationalization of mortgage giants Fannie/Freddie,
[4] takeover of worlds largest insurance company (AIG),
[5] seizure of 7th largest US mortgage originator (IndyMac),
[6] government bailout ($700 billions + $150 bill.),
[7] loosened Discount Window borrowing parameters worth maybe a $trillion?
[8] paying interest on the Fed's reserves,
[9] direct purchase of commercial paper from private companies.
[10] Dow heading way south of 9,000!
Instead of $3-5,000 Gold iss gonna languish and maybe even fall as poor folk sell to the man at the booth counter. The fact that gold isn’t at maybe even $10,000 – and is still below recent highs – means it AIN'T the refuge “experts” say. When people need cash they’ll sell everything, including gold, in fact gold first, and they sure ain't buying it for a rainy day or Xmas. Short, bay, short, and in the short-term – a new meaning for short-term – even a dead cat can bounce by the half day, sometimes in the half hour. Gotta go back into the dealing asylum, my shorts, CFDs and puts are about to pay hard cash on the nail. People think I'm a derivatives trader, but really I'm strictly cash; cash in and cash out every day, day after day, sometimes hour by hour, doing my bit for Obama's election hopes. Ya gotta be a turkey who votes for Xmas not to!